Typical arrival
10 min earlyThe median gate outcome among flights with reported delay data.
BEFORE YOU BOOK
A clearer picture
of MSP.
Minneapolis–Saint Paul International
Explore past weather and flight patterns to put your travel plans in context.
January at MSP
Based on observations from 2020–2024
Published months: January. Other months are not ready yet.
A useful look back, not a forecast. These are historical observations. They don’t predict your flight or whether you’ll make a connection.
THE BIG PICTURE
Your January snapshot
Average arrival
2.5 min lateLonger delays can pull the average above the typical flight.
Low-visibility weather
17.8%Recorded hours with low ceilings or poor visibility.
Canceled flights
2.1%1,025 of 49,262 scheduled arrivals.
Looking at longer delays
The 90th-percentile gate outcome was 31 min late. That describes the spread of recorded flight outcomes, not a connection guarantee.
Flight outcomes cover domestic reporting carriers. 48,178 arrivals had reported delay data; cancellations and diverted arrivals are counted separately.
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
What has the weather looked like?
Hours with low cloud ceilings or reduced visibility at the airport weather station. Across January, this occurred in about 18 of every 100 valid recorded hours.
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Local time · America/Chicago · tap an hour for details
Fewer hoursMore hours
Cell numbers are percentages of valid hours. Color scale: 0–20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80%, 80–100%. — means unavailable, not zero exposure.
9am in January
21.3% of valid hours met this weather definition (33 of 155; 100.0% coverage). The 95% uncertainty interval for this rate is 14.8%–28.4%.
View the weather data table
| Month | 12am | 1am | 2am | 3am | 4am | 5am | 6am | 7am | 8am | 9am | 10am | 11am | 12pm | 1pm | 2pm | 3pm | 4pm | 5pm | 6pm | 7pm | 8pm | 9pm | 10pm | 11pm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 18.1% | 16.9% | 17.4% | 21.4% | 22.7% | 20.8% | 20.6% | 22.1% | 20.6% | 21.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 17.5% | 16.1% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 16.1% | 17.4% | 16.8% | 18.1% | 16.9% |
FLIGHT PATTERNS
When were arrivals scheduled?
See how historical gate schedules were distributed through the day. More scheduled flights does not, by itself, mean more congestion.
155 service days · historical scheduled gate times · includes canceled flights · not a measure of runway capacity.
Use the history. Check the day.
Compare the weather and flight patterns that matter to your trip, then check current conditions and your airline’s updates as departure approaches.
Measured history, with the gaps made clear
Weather: NOAA · Flight records: BTS · 2020–2024 · 99.7% valid hourly coverage for the selected condition
Data, coverage & limitations
Evidence: Observed Stage A. Data through 2024-01-31. Method msp-stage-a-month-v2.
Publication checks require five input years, at least 80% hourly coverage and observations in three distinct years for supported hourly cells.
95% local-day block bootstrap percentile intervals, 500 draws, seed 14011 Weather-rate uncertainty is different from variation in individual flight delays.
Weather definitions: low ceiling <305 m or visibility <4,828 m; sustained wind ≥10.3 m/s. Station observations do not cover the entire terminal area.
BTS reporting-carrier domestic flights only; gate delays include network and airline effects.
Winter and thunderstorm parsing unavailable; missing observations remain unknown.
Only the selected month is available; annual scope and other months are unavailable.
BTS monthly populations follow reported FlightDate (origin-local service date), not reconstructed arrival dates.
Historical schedules are retrospective gate-time snapshots, not all runway movements.
Weather years include the pandemic period; historical outcomes are not future connection probabilities.
Last calculated: 11/14/2026, 6:46:31 PM Central time.
BTS last checked 11/15/2026, 2:04:33 PM Central time; data through 2024-01-31.
NOAA last checked 11/15/2026, 2:04:21 PM Central time; data through 2024-01-31.
For historical travel planning; not for operational decisions or an individual connection probability.
Release c6b0340a05ae04fb0ef57820617dbf08dc886edc569cefb50c99f9027e9a5e66What about an airport resilience score?
Airport capacity, traffic pressure and recovery models are still under evaluation. We show observed history while those models are tested, without publishing a guessed score.
SensitivityModel under evaluation
PressureModel under evaluation
RecoveryModel under evaluation